If the trend of increase in cocaine1 abuse has been slowed down, or if the total amount of illegal drugs in the market has been significantly reduced, even though the absolute use of cocaine is still increasing, we would say that the government efforts in apprehending2 drug traffickers are somehow effective.
In conclusion, the arguer oversimplifies the cause-and-effect relationship between government's increased efforts and the observed increase in the illegal use of cocaine. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that the government's enforcement efforts have directly led to the increased supply and use of cocaine. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the trend of increase in the use of cocaine and other drugs before and after the government's actions.
6、Argument典型逻辑错误
1. 调查类逻辑错误
抽样的程序是不是具备随机性
样品是不是足够大
Example 1:
The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine for breweries3.
Magic Hat Brewery5 recently released the results of a survey of visitors to its tasting room last year. Magic Hat reports that the majority of visitors asked to taste its low-calorie beers. To boost sales, other small breweries should brew4 low-calorie beers as well.
Example 2:
The following appeared in a memorandum6 from a member of a financial management and consulting firm.
We have learned from an employee of Witful Ltd. that is accounting7 department by checking about 10% of the last month purchasing invoices8 for errors any inconsistencies saved the company some $10,000 in over-payments. In order to help our clients increase the net gains, we should advise each of them to institute a policy of checking all purchasing invoices for errors. Such recommendation could also help us get the Witful account by demonstrating to Witful the regressness of our methods.
A. The source of the news is not dependable.
B. The sample cannot reflect the general condition.
